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What do you do when your B2B model can't be shoehorned into a subscription model but it's still based on a licensing paradigm? You adopt a licensing model that actually fits your business.
|submitted by 10duke to 10duke|
My two cents or why I'm reluctantly pessimistic about SMRs. Please prove me wrong
I am however pessimistic, and here is why (copy pasted from another comment, but I think it is worth a dedicated post):
Estimates and studies of the SMR viability rely only at the engineering side, and extrapolating the economics. Let me tell you what will make or break SMRs (so that you'll be able to interpret the events of the next decade or so).
The past has demonstrated that economy of scale is acheivable (bigger was worth the extra cost because it was compensated by extra profits). SMR wants to go the other way. That might be possible, but on one condition: do what economy of scale did with economy of numbers.
The first 4x250MW set of SMR will probably cost more in development, definitely in licensing (because the regulator has to define an entire new paradigm; more on that below), maybe in operation and probably in construction than one good old 1GW, but that's fine, that is to be expected, that's part of the plan, and the cost can also be expected to fall as more are built. Just like cars, fridges, TV smartphones did before SMR.
To achieve this economy of number you need to build a lot of them, which, in today's world, means you'll need to export your design. Which mean the same design must be licensed in a lot of countries. And thats where the bottleneck is. For anyone who's had to deal with nuclear regulator will know they don't give a shit about your breakeven cost, or your construction schedule, or your loss revenue while in production. They have been trained and educated as the authority to shut down several GWh of production, sometime representing a good chunk of a country production and revenue, with the strike of a pen. Their are used to having as countrerparts obedient nuclear operators, their tolerance for "compromise" is conditioned to their good will. They have a huge power, and with that come a huge ego. Contrary to popular belief, the nuclear "lobby" has very little sway over regulators.
So if you don't want to lose 5-10 years and billions in licensing and re-design every time you entire a new market with your SMR design (and almost going back to square 2 in term of recovering cost), you need one thing: regulators of several (ideally nearly all) countries to agree on licensing, not just guideline, and, more importantly, to recognise eachother licensing (one design licensed in one contry is "automatically" licensed in the others).
Don't worry, regulators will agree. On three things: 1-yes it would be nice to all have the same standards; 2-yes it would be nice to recognise eachother licenses; 3-all you guys have to do is do what I do and recognise my authority. This is how human nature will get in the way of engineering and economics model predictions. And the push of the industry behind them will make little to motivate them.
And even assuming good natured regulators, willing to reach a common licensing process, keep in mind how thill will be spinned by the anti crowd in each country: "well, of course the [country X] 'regulator' will tell you the [SMR from country X] is safe! are we stupid enough to take their word for it?! Look how [our country regulator] is bowing to [country X nuclear firm] lobby"
The EPR is a good example: "just translate the French safety case in Finnish and English, and the ONR and STUK will approuve it"; how did that turned out? That was the EDF/Areva ego in that case.
This is why am I worried. It's not just EDF/Areva case with the EPR. I don't know of any pair of countries that have agreed on a common licesing process "if you license, it's licensed for me too".
Plus, it's not like it's never been tried! When the embrio of the European Union was though out, nuclear was developping and they thought exactly that: let's have a single way to license nuclear reactors. It was one of the objective of Euratom. It was a group of countries actively willing to get together and work out their differences, it was a booming nuclear time, the nuclear industry had serious political leverage, it was even before TMI, let alone chernobyl or fukushima, and the corruption scandals in the industry that led to loss of trust from the public. It didn't have all the baggage of today's nuclear industry and yet, it failed.
Don't get me wrong, I dream of a world where SMRs are sold around the word like cars. But to be vialble and deliver on their promise, SMR will need to achieve, very fast, in a post Fukushima world, at a global scale, with national authorities with decades of king like powers and very much attached to their independance, what Europe failed to acheive in the the golden era of nuclear.
One thing we can learn from is the aviation world where they somewhat managed it.
PS: yes, I know the industry is getting together, and there are some efforts for uniformisation, but reading betzeen the lines, it's avoiding the hard choices: it's more about agreeing to "look at it the same way" and not "relying on what you've done and not re-doing it myslef". This will not prevent years long re-lincensing and (the measure by wich regulators demontrate their contribution to the safety) more design changes.