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Theory: Botan's character has been specifically targeted at Slav audience
submitted by hololive4life to Hololive
A frame of Rusanivka district, taken from Shishiro Botan's Introductory Stream
How do you do, fellow kids?
It all happened to me a couple of days ago, when I peeped into Botan's CoD Warzone stream (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgX_7SD8Qts) for a minute or so, just to notice several comments in Russian in her chat the next moment. It was that moment I felt like all the puzzle pieces have finally come together in my head, making a clear picture of what was going on there. So here, I want to disclose my theory regarding general nowadays COVER corp.'s expansion strategy on the example of Shishiro Botan case, in particular. In order to make this theory more detailed and elaborate, I will first make some introductory statements (from my observations only, please bear in mind that this is not a History book or something) regarding how Hololive has widened its audience through the time, moving finally to how, in my opinion, it all has led to Botan here with us nowadays.
Ok, we all know THAT (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaLF0Imr8Yo) YAGOO's famous interview from June 16, 2019, where he had dropped his most iconic phrase about Hololive revolving around the concept of an Idol group, like AKB48, which eventually only became a subject of various memes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xc3aHCSsCRA). Though now it is hard not to listen to his words without a smile of a face, they, however, serve as a good indicator of what was the original idea of Hololive. While it's is hard to see any global concepts of Hololive at the very beginning of the Era, by only looking at its most-veteran veterans, Sora and Roboco (Sora has been designed as a solo "definitely-not-Kizuna-AI" playful "I-like-singing/I-like-video-games" girl (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXF1SzAtFj8), basically inspired by Kizuna AI success, and "Hell, yeah, we've got the technology, let's do something similar" way of thinking of YAGOO (https://www.moguravr.com/tokyo-xr-startups-interview/), while Roboco, as a Hololive member, was originally developed around the concept of her 3D-model itself (https://note.com/kuromaru9/n/n425892669647 you can clearly see here that Roboco's concept originates from the year of 2013 (!), long before VTubers even became a major thing, and for a while, it wasn't even clear whether she should eventually become a video-game character, Vsinger model, or else), rather than around a concept of a character with a particular personality, which eventually has become the "ponkotsu-robot" personality we know today (I suppose, it works totally vice-versa for the newest gens: first they hire a person, discuss and develop her charachter's personality, and only after the 2D model is drawn), yet it is pretty clearly visible (at least, for me), that an "Idol group" idea was a big thing later on, in particular, when they were making 1th Generation, and each its member supposed to be an Idol with a different personality: Haato supposed to be the sassy one, Aki - the chill/clumsy one, Mel - the childish one, Matsuri - the
In the interview, he talked a bit about how their 3D motion capture technology allows for live concert holding, with a further probability to transmit the 3D image on stages, located all across the World, when 5G becomes more widespread, meaning that they in COVER corp. have an intention to particularly make money from the concerts. And what is the easiest way to bring the biggest audience possible to the concert? Right, the way to create an idol group. Here's the thing: many successful idol groups are organized in a way that each its member has diverse looks/personality, such that they can attract diverse people with diverse tastes since different sorts of people will be attracted by a different oshimen. Similar way, COVER corp. could have organized Hololive's business model bearing in mind the Idol group business model, suggesting that their talents would occasionally gather together, like the Voltron, into a group to give a concert, meantime live-streaming for their personal fans, doing stuff like singing, ASMR, talking, and gaming. Of course, one may always say something like: "C'mon, dude, they are already raising millions on spacha alone, why would COVER even bother about the Idol group thing when developing their business plan?", and yes, today they presumably make the most of their money from individual streaming, but back in early 2018 such source of income could not have been very obvious since even having 50-100k of subs for each talent were a big achievement back then (unlike today's typical 400-800k of subs) while holding regular concerts is still beneficial even when all of their talents have a relatively small number of subs. So, taking all of that into the account, the initial 1st Gen casting presumably has been done similarly to one of an Idol group, aiming for the diversity, and the potential target audience for such a group of talents should have been something like "16-30 Japanese men, who are into female idols", making it similar to the typical Idol group target audience.
Then, everything changed when
Then, both the member amount and viewers' numbers have been steadily increasing. But here's the thing: as far as the Japanese target audience becomes more and more saturated, then in order to achieve a steady sub growth for every next generation, as well as for Hololive in general, it is crucial to target new potential audience(s) every next generation. Here's why it is important: let's take a successful Hololive talent, say, Aqua, Korone, or Matsuri, who has a decent monthly increase of the sub/viewing count. And then let's imagine we want to introduce new talents to the Hololive group, and we eventually want all of the Hololive members to have a stable sub/viewing count growth. Should we in such a case seek new talent(s), similar to our successful one(s)? Hell no, since the consequences are likely to be negative in a couple of ways. First, the potential target audience for the old talent (let it be Aqua) and for the new one (let it be Vtuber X) would be the same, meaning that they both will end up competing with each other for the viewers. In such a case, if Vtuber X is especially good, then not only she will take herself the bulk of the newcomers (from that specific target audience), but also eventually take the attention of Aqua's viewers. If Vtuber X is simply worse/less experienced/skilled, then the bulk of the newcomers (from that specific target audience) will rather start watching Aqua than Vtuber X, and it will be very hard to her to grow big in terms of view count. Yet, in both cases, the potential monthly increase of the sub/viewing count would be lower compared to yet another case when two of them have completely different potential audiences and don't compete with each other at all. Second, even if their shared audience (subscribes) has been ultimately subscribed to both the channels, it would be very unlikely that most of them will find time and will to watch all theirs added together several streams per day, especially when there are two streams going at the same time. The potential solution to make similar-style Vtubers less compete with each other would be to make them stream in completely different time slots, such that increasing overall target audience, but then again, this shall only work finely to some extent, after which they will still end up competing for the audience. So, simply put, diversity = good for each and every streamer, good for COVER in terms of steady income increase, both streamers and company are happy; alikeness = bad for each and every streamer, bad for COVER in terms of steady income increase (and then again, I'm not saying that in such case there will be slow income growth in general, what I'm saying is it just would be lower than otherwise), both streamers and company are unhappy.
And then we come to the current year of 2020, where several major things happened here. The biggest of all is, IMO, the enormous growth of Hololive viewers starting from the first quartal of 2020, specifically, in Japan it is a big phenomenon, almost everyone within 16-30 age group either heard of Vtubers or watches them, and within the Vtuber market, the agencies now have to bitterly compete for the JP-audience attention, since it's getting harder to simply recruit new audiences with new interests (in other words, most of the potential audiences have already been covered by certain Vtubers). Another big thing is (well, otherwise I probably wouldn't sit here on Reddit now and wouldn't type this post for you, guys) an extreme growth of Hololive viewers among the overseas gang. Both - majorly thanks to Corona Crisis and Youtube AI. Even as of April 2020, when the 5th Gen casting was taking place, YAGOO has already been able to see these trends emerging, such that he and his colleagues might have kept in mind an idea to cover new potential audiences when seeking for new talents. But anyway, as of now, we can witness how (at least) two of five 5th gen talents are pretty much consistent with that suggestion: Polka (who's all into jokes/gags/memes, and who is specifically aimed at people enjoying that sort of things (including Hololive, which is, like, 80% consists of memes)), and, eventually, Botan.
So, yes, we've finally come to the Botan's case (thanks for being able to reach this place). And no, IMO, the previous part wasn't the useless one, since once it has been acknowledged, the theory I'm gonna tell you now will look less crazy. But here's the theory itself: during the casting, YAGOO was specifically looking for a talent with Botan-like characteristics (I will describe them hereinafter), and her character design was specifically made the way it is now, such that her character could reach the overseas audience, specifically Slav audience, and her personality/interests would make a lot of them stay with here. And NO, by saying this I don't mean she's aimed at Slavs ONLY (and won't be saying CYKABLYAD only at her streams), nor she's aimed at Slavs MAINLY, - she's still Japanese, and the majority of her audience will still be Japanese 20-30+ men who like FPS gaming streams, but, on top of that, a lot of her aspects, while being relatively indifferent to her Japanese audience (meaning they are nor positive, nor negative for them), are beneficial when it comes to her potential overseas audience, specifically Slav audience, and eventually, it is planned that a quite significant percentage of her viewers will be the ones from overseas audience, specifically Slav audience (making, like, a difference between having 4,000 viewers on a stream, and having 5,000 viewers on a stream). And for greater certainty, by "Slav" here, I mean quite a wide group of people, who live in former Soviet Union countries (most of that countries), as well as such countries as Poland, countries from the Balkan region, and some others, as well as people of Slav origin living in, practically, any other country. So, here are several indicators of why I came up with his specific theory:
And then again, it's just a theory after all, so I may eventually end up with various "How can you say that? it's all beyond the official statements of Hololive" types of comments since I don't have any cast iron proofs, like YAGOO's working correspondence, or COVER corp.'s business plan analysis for the 5th generation, or something like that. And it will be extremely unlikely, that one day I will hear something like: "Yeah, we really hoped that Slavs would watch Botan since it will bring us more money" coming from any of COVER top-level manager's mouth, so all I will ever have is only my assumptions, based upon certain observations and some kind of logic. But still, after spotting yet another chat comment written in Cyrillic, or yet another spacha in roubles, on a yet another Botan's stream, don't ask me why is this thing happening this way. I certainly won't ask myself why.
Thanks for reading! Stay hydrated!